2013-2014 NBA Season Part Deux

The other aspect of fantasy basketball appeals to those who want instant gratification. In other words, for those who do not have the patience for a seasonal league and wish to see immediate results, daily fantasy is a great alternative. I read plenty of basketball news on a daily basis which eventually led me to FanDuel. On daily sites such as FanDuel, there are daily tournaments in which a prize pool is given out to the top fantasy teams per each day. It is incredibly addictive because each day brings a new lineup, and a new opportunity to win.

Each day, certain amounts of teams are going to play. Your roster consists of filling up the following positions: PG, PG, SG, SG, SF, SF, PF, PF, C. You need to fill up the nine positions within a restricted cap budget. With a total of $60,000 cap budget, you allocate the funds to each player, trying to fill up your roster within budget. Each player is worth a certain amount of salary, and it changes daily based on their recent performances. A top fantasy stud like Kevin Durant can cost from a range of 11,000 to 13,000. That means he takes up almost 20% of your cap space and you will need to try to compensate by taking cheaper options at the other positions. What’s interesting about daily leagues is how there is a tradeoff between player options and the vast amount of different combinations you can create. With that being said, 95% of the time, there is only one true winning combination per given night. Out of thousands of entries, the #1 fantasy team is almost always exclusive. You can see how difficult it is trying to get the magic combination that will win you big bucks.

There are really two strategies that work in daily leagues.

Stud Stacking – the first strategy is to try and stack as many studs/superstars as possible while filling the other spots with minimum salary players. This is incredibly risky, but I’ve seen many of these win time and time again. The trick here is to try and pick the guys who will give you tremendous upside but cost very little, while combining those guys with superstars who usually give you consistent results. The risk here is that your superstars might not contribute a big amount for their price, or if your minimum salary players contribute very little. This is essentially an all-in strategy that is typically used for big tournaments.

Balanced roster – the second strategy is to avoid minimum salaries and try to fill your roster with guys who are a little bit more consistent. By doing so, you have less risk and more chance of actually getting a payout. Due to the fact that the top 10 percentile usually gets a payout, if you reach a threshold you can make a profit.

Should you pay for the cream of the crop players? The answer is yes. If Kevin Durant scored 70 Fantasy Points (FP) that night, and you did not have him in your roster, you essentially are not going to cash out. Even if all of your players had a decent contribution of say 35 FP each, your end result would be 315. However, compare that with the guy who had KD, let’s say two of his minimum salary players only got him 20 points each, but the rest averaged 35. 20+20+35+35+35+70+35+35+35=320. The trick is really to guess which studs will be a winner (matchups, injuries, etc) and to build the roster around those guys with low salaries.

I don’t know about the other fantasy websites, but for FanDuel, you have to get around a total of 300-350 on a low scoring night to win, 350-390 on a high scoring night to win big. This is very difficult to do because it means your roster has to be flawless, each player on average giving you at least 40 FPS.

I won a bunch of times, but I also lost a bunch of times. Basically, it's like gambling your money away trying to hit the right lotto number. It's definitely fun, but to win big you gotta play risky so it's difficult. The most I've won from a tournament was $36 for a $2 entry.

2013-2014 NBA Season Part One

2013-2014 Fantasy BBall Results

I’ve never really followed any sports until the start of this year. A friend of mine started up a friendly fantasy basketball league and invited me to join. Although it started out just for fun, it grew into a hobby. Actually, I would say it was more than a hobby because it became part of my daily life during the regular season. Going into my first fantasy draft, I was completely oblivious to more than 90% of the players. I drafted only by name and stats presented. I knew very little about team depth, injuries, aging, and potential breakouts. Needless to say, my first drafted team didn’t do very well in the season. However, I quickly learned from my lack of drafting knowledge and entered several other seasonal leagues, two of which were for money. Out of the five leagues I entered, I finished 11th, 6th, 2nd, 2nd, and 5th. Barring the first one being a total mistake, the rest turned out pretty decently. Out of the two money leagues, the first one I took 2nd place and won $70. The second one where I finished 5th, I could’ve easily made the playoffs had I monitored the week like a hawk. In any case, I feel more confident than ever going into the next season and can’t wait till next year’s season begins. There are some strategies I’ve thought about exploring next season. Since all of the Yahoo Basketball Leagues have the standard 9 category scoring method, realistically you just need to win five categories consistently to really win the league. Being an “all-rounder” doesn’t really help if you are not guaranteed to win in any one category. There’s an interesting tradeoff between player roles.

Guard: Generally speaking, the G does well in assists, FT%, 3s, steals, and points. Guards usually hurt you in the FG%, turnovers, and have low rebounding rates.

PF/C: The front court players are the opposite in terms of strengths and weaknesses. Forwards do well in rebounds, FG%, blocks, points, and have low turnovers. However, most of them have terrible FT%.

SG/SF: These guys are the blend and sort of do it all. Except SF is almost always more contributing than the SG because SG really doesn’t do anything other than get you points.

Now let’s take a look at the roster limits set by the Yahoo standard leagues. The positons are: PG, G, SG, SF, PF, F, C, C, UTL, UTL, BN, BN, BN. It’s very important to draft people who are not constricted into one role. Take for example, you have Tyson Chandler, who only plays at the C spot. There is really only 4 out of the 10 spots on any given night that you can put him. Compare that with someone like Serge Ibaka, who is listed as PF/C. Ibaka on any given night, can be put in any of the 6 slots available. This is important because sometimes nights can be loaded with one type of player, and thus you are forced to bench them. Whenever a player is playing that night and he’s on your bench that means you’ve lost value. This is only true for categories that go up as more games are played. Essentially, FG% and FT% are sort of random in the sense that they cannot be controlled through sheer volume. For all you know, the best FT% player you have might not have taken more than two attempts. Likewise, sometimes a player as a terrible night and his FG% takes a huge hit. The last caveat is the turnovers committed. Since the more players you play, the higher chance you will commit more turnovers. Thus, this stat is hard to control, especially if you draft a higher number of ball handlers. This leaves the idea open for strategy.

I want to experiment with different team compositions next year. For example, I want to try out punting a category to ensure I win the others. I can do this by building my team around players with similar stats. Of course, it will change depending on who is left on the board, and some luck.

Strategy 1: Punt FT%. The idea behind this is quite simple. Some players are absolutely monsters on the court, but they can’t hit free throws for their life. Notable examples would be DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond, and Dwight Howard. However, by having a combination of these guys, you would easily win rebounds, blocks and FG%.

Strategy 2: Punt points. The general consensus is that most fantasy owners love to have guys who contribute large amounts of points. This happens because points are realistically the most important stat in real life. But it is only one category in a 9 category fantasy league. So let’s say you don’t care about points, you can stack your team with players who consistently contribute to multiple categories. Some examples are Paul Millsap, Joakim Noah, Ricky Rubio, and Lance Stephenson. Players I will be reaching for next season: DeMarcus Cousins, Andre Drummond, DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin, Rajon Rondo, Paul Millsap, Thaddeus Young, and DeMar DeRozan. Players I will NOT be drafting, like ever: Kyrie Irving, Dwayne Wade, Jeremy Lin, Spurs players, Larry Sanders, Roy Hibbert, Steve Nash, Derrick Rose, and Kevin Garnett.

Players of interest: 

Gorgui Dieng: In my opinion, this guy will be a sleeper going into next season if Nikola Pekovec iis injured or if Kevin Love gets traded. When Pek was injured this season, Dieng became a double double machine with good peripheral stats are over. This kid has potential.

Andrew Wiggins/Jabari Parker/Nerlens Noel: These guys have been hyped by college prospects, and it will be interesting to see how these players transition into the NBA. Since Noel will be playing for the 76ers, he will get a ton of playing time as the starting center and I do not fear drafting him because he took the entire year off to recover from his knee injury.

Busts of the Year:
I love busts of the year, it tells us who complete fell flat on their face when expectations were set too high. Luckily for me, I didn’t have any of these guys.

1. Derrick Rose: This guy just can’t get over his injuries. Shortly coming out of a knee surgery, everyone thinks he’s ready to carry the Bulls this season yet he suffers another season ending injury. Yeah, don’t draft him.
2. Anthony Bennett: The first pick overall of 2012 was the second biggest bust of the year. With averages of .356 FG%, .638 FT, 4.2 PTS, 3 REB per game, he is widely considered the one of the worst first picks ever.
3. Larry Sanders: This guy was getting picked up 2nd to 3rd pick in drafts and he didn’t do anything for the Bucks this year. Disaster.
4. Kobe Bryant: Good grief, he only played 6 games and got injured again.

Breakouts of the Year:
These guys were absolutely steals because they were drafted so late yet returned so much value.
1. Trevor Ariza: I never heard of this guy, but he put up some amazing stats, and he went undrafted going into the season.
2. Terrence Jones: Terrence WHO? Yeah, he was an unknown player for the Rockets that got hot in the middle of the year and contributed huge stats to his owners.
3. DeAndre Jordan: for a guy who was drafted around 10th round, he was the leader in FG% this season. However, his FT% was horrendous, but who cares. He was a huge shot blocker, and his FG% anchor was incredible.

This is my money league that won me $70. My roster was really good until the final week. Kevin Love pretty much gave up during the final weeks of regular season play. His players went nuts on the other hand. Sometimes you win sometimes you lose, it's the name of the game. I have no shame losing to that guy's roster because he drafted really well, especially for a guy who had 9th pick (I had 3rd pick).

Why NOT? Wobbbbbuffet!