Saturday, June 14, 2014

2013-2014 NBA Season Part Deux

The other aspect of fantasy basketball appeals to those who want instant gratification. In other words, for those who do not have the patience for a seasonal league and wish to see immediate results, daily fantasy is a great alternative. I read plenty of basketball news on a daily basis which eventually led me to FanDuel. On daily sites such as FanDuel, there are daily tournaments in which a prize pool is given out to the top fantasy teams per each day. It is incredibly addictive because each day brings a new lineup, and a new opportunity to win.

Each day, certain amounts of teams are going to play. Your roster consists of filling up the following positions: PG, PG, SG, SG, SF, SF, PF, PF, C. You need to fill up the nine positions within a restricted cap budget. With a total of $60,000 cap budget, you allocate the funds to each player, trying to fill up your roster within budget. Each player is worth a certain amount of salary, and it changes daily based on their recent performances. A top fantasy stud like Kevin Durant can cost from a range of 11,000 to 13,000. That means he takes up almost 20% of your cap space and you will need to try to compensate by taking cheaper options at the other positions. What’s interesting about daily leagues is how there is a tradeoff between player options and the vast amount of different combinations you can create. With that being said, 95% of the time, there is only one true winning combination per given night. Out of thousands of entries, the #1 fantasy team is almost always exclusive. You can see how difficult it is trying to get the magic combination that will win you big bucks.

There are really two strategies that work in daily leagues.

Stud Stacking – the first strategy is to try and stack as many studs/superstars as possible while filling the other spots with minimum salary players. This is incredibly risky, but I’ve seen many of these win time and time again. The trick here is to try and pick the guys who will give you tremendous upside but cost very little, while combining those guys with superstars who usually give you consistent results. The risk here is that your superstars might not contribute a big amount for their price, or if your minimum salary players contribute very little. This is essentially an all-in strategy that is typically used for big tournaments.

Balanced roster – the second strategy is to avoid minimum salaries and try to fill your roster with guys who are a little bit more consistent. By doing so, you have less risk and more chance of actually getting a payout. Due to the fact that the top 10 percentile usually gets a payout, if you reach a threshold you can make a profit.

Should you pay for the cream of the crop players? The answer is yes. If Kevin Durant scored 70 Fantasy Points (FP) that night, and you did not have him in your roster, you essentially are not going to cash out. Even if all of your players had a decent contribution of say 35 FP each, your end result would be 315. However, compare that with the guy who had KD, let’s say two of his minimum salary players only got him 20 points each, but the rest averaged 35. 20+20+35+35+35+70+35+35+35=320. The trick is really to guess which studs will be a winner (matchups, injuries, etc) and to build the roster around those guys with low salaries.

I don’t know about the other fantasy websites, but for FanDuel, you have to get around a total of 300-350 on a low scoring night to win, 350-390 on a high scoring night to win big. This is very difficult to do because it means your roster has to be flawless, each player on average giving you at least 40 FPS.

I won a bunch of times, but I also lost a bunch of times. Basically, it's like gambling your money away trying to hit the right lotto number. It's definitely fun, but to win big you gotta play risky so it's difficult. The most I've won from a tournament was $36 for a $2 entry.




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